I did this exercise to try to see if it is possible to predict the ISIS attacks using time series analysis, like it is done in the stock markets. The increasingly distributed nature of ISIS attacks leads one to believe that the thinking behind a stock market move (which is a sum of large number of smaller moves) could be a close approximation of the model of the terrorist attacks by ISIS.
I found the timeline of ISIS growth from the Wilson Center: Link
This timeline was mapped to an Excel spreadsheet with a specific weight given to each event, 300 for a major attack by ISIS and -300 for the death of an ISIS leader. The time span between these events was modelled as growth of ISIS at a certain rate.
This data was used to predict ISIS attacks using neural networks and the analysis is presented here:
ANALYSIS OF ISIS ATTACKS USING NEURAL NETWORKS: REPORT
The cumulative score is plotted in chart below.
What is scary about this chart is that the size and power of ISIS today could be much more than what we feel from the size of the terror attacks it carries out.
The second chart below shows a time series of events that hit the ISIS. ISIS attacks are positive numbers and attacks on ISIS are negative number. If you zoom in to around 2014 - 2016 period, you will notice that every ISIS attack is followed by a corresponding attack on ISIS (or it could be vice versa - attacks on ISIS make ISIS attack back.)
Here is an interesting article from the Washington Post which talks of how the above process could be modeled as a Hawkes Process (Link). I found this article thanks to Jonathan Reichental, who I follow on Twitter. The article describes how the Hawkes Process was successfully able to describe the IED attacks of the Irish Republican Army in retaliation against attacks of the British Security Forces. The same could be applicable here as well.
The last major event on this timeline is the defeat of ISIS in Fallujah, Iraq on June 26, 2016, when the Iraqi forces regained control of Fallujah which fell in the hands of ISIS in 2014. I think we should expect a retaliation from ISIS soon.
ISIS timeline from the Wilson Center: Link
The analysis of the timeline in a spreadsheet: Link
Notice the peaks around Thursday, Friday and Sunday in the histogram below.
I found the timeline of ISIS growth from the Wilson Center: Link
This timeline was mapped to an Excel spreadsheet with a specific weight given to each event, 300 for a major attack by ISIS and -300 for the death of an ISIS leader. The time span between these events was modelled as growth of ISIS at a certain rate.
This data was used to predict ISIS attacks using neural networks and the analysis is presented here:
ANALYSIS OF ISIS ATTACKS USING NEURAL NETWORKS: REPORT
The cumulative score is plotted in chart below.
What is scary about this chart is that the size and power of ISIS today could be much more than what we feel from the size of the terror attacks it carries out.
The second chart below shows a time series of events that hit the ISIS. ISIS attacks are positive numbers and attacks on ISIS are negative number. If you zoom in to around 2014 - 2016 period, you will notice that every ISIS attack is followed by a corresponding attack on ISIS (or it could be vice versa - attacks on ISIS make ISIS attack back.)
Here is an interesting article from the Washington Post which talks of how the above process could be modeled as a Hawkes Process (Link). I found this article thanks to Jonathan Reichental, who I follow on Twitter. The article describes how the Hawkes Process was successfully able to describe the IED attacks of the Irish Republican Army in retaliation against attacks of the British Security Forces. The same could be applicable here as well.
The last major event on this timeline is the defeat of ISIS in Fallujah, Iraq on June 26, 2016, when the Iraqi forces regained control of Fallujah which fell in the hands of ISIS in 2014. I think we should expect a retaliation from ISIS soon.
ISIS timeline from the Wilson Center: Link
The analysis of the timeline in a spreadsheet: Link
Notice the peaks around Thursday, Friday and Sunday in the histogram below.
