A Design Of A Data Warehouse And Use Of Data Mining Techniques For Analysis Of Risk Factors Affecting Agriculture In India

We published a paper titled "A Design Of A Data Warehouse And Use Of Data Mining Techniques For Analysis Of Risk Factors Affecting Agriculture In India" in the IOSR Journal of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences.

Here is the link to the published paper: A Design Of A Data Warehouse And Use Of Data Mining Techniques For Analysis Of Risk Factors Affecting Agriculture In India

The Journal issue can be found here: IOSR Journal of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences Volume 8 Issue 10

Abstract: In this paper, data made available in public domain by the Government of India, under the Open Government Data Initiative is analysed using data warehouse design and data analysis techniques. A data model is developed to analyse risks in agriculture. Regression analysis and K-Means Clustering are used as analysis techniques to derive insights from the available data and identify potential risk factors.

The datasets used in this paper can be accessed here:

SOURCE DATASETS DOWNLOADED FROM DATA.GOV.IN    DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1557.2566

SCHEMA TABLE DATASETS GENERATED BY TRANSFORMING THE INPUT DATA:  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3654.4087

SELECTED PIVOT CHARTS USED FOR FINAL ANALYSIS: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4178.6966

Impact Of Rupee Exchange Rate On Business Opportunities In India

We published a research paper titled "Impact Of Rupee Exchange Rate On Business Opportunities In India" in the IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance and the paper can be accessed here: Link to the journal

In this paper, we have presented the impact of Rupee exchange rate on business opportunities in India from a macro economic perspective considering the indicators such as Consumer Price Inflation, Gross Domestic Product and Index Of Industrial Production.

Abstract: In this paper, we present an analysis of the macro economy in India with respect to the exchange rate of the Rupee and de regulation of oil prices. These 2 factors have been critical in deciding the business competitiveness of the economy and their individual effects are studied. Various business competencies arising from strong and weak Rupee as well as de-regulated prices of oil are discussed. 

In continuation with the analysis expressed in this paper, we would like to share the following analysis:

The Rupee exchange rate in India is linked to the trade deficit (imports - exports). Higher trade deficits lead to a weaker Rupee. Considering an economy which has certain total imports x and certain total exports y, if the exports start dropping and imports (of consumer goods) start increasing, it might be a cause of concern (on the competitiveness of the economy). A currency depreciation might boost the exports in the short run, by making them cheaper. 

But consider the case of India. Here the primary imports are all in energy: oil, natural gas and coal. When the imports increase, we are importing more energy, and that is because the economy is doing well  and we are producing and selling more (domestically and internationally). In this case, should the Rupee depreciate with increased imports? Think about it.

(Petroleum accounts for 34% of India's imports. Data source at tradingeconomics.com)

On another note, Japan manages to import energy (oil) to meet 42% of its energy needs, but does not see any inflation even if the Yen depreciates from 75 to a US Dollar to 100 to a US Dollar. This is not the case with India. As is evident from the above research paper, a depreciation of the Rupee vs US Dollar will lead to higher inflation in the country (data from 2010 to 2014).

The below graph shows the energy imports in India as a percent of total (Data from: tradingeconomics.com)

source: tradingeconomics.com

Differential Snap-Shot Algorithms For Data Extraction From Data Sources And Updating A Centralized Data Warehouse

 A paper with the above title was published in the IOSR Journal of Engineering in their October 2015 issue.

Abstract: An in-depth review of existing techniques for loading a data warehouse using differential snapshot algorithms is presented. Further, certain performance bottlenecks have been identified and improvements to the existing state of the art are suggested.

The full paper can be downloaded here: IOSR Journal Of Engineering

The journal issue can be accessed here: IOSR Journal Of Engineering

Graph Based Verification And Identification Of Defects By Binary Search On A Graph

Here are the slides from the paper presented at the IEEE Conference on Computing, Communications and Automation organised by the Galgotias University, Gurgaon on 15 May 2014:




The full paper can be downloaded here on IEEE Xplore Digital Library 

The Root Of ISIS

ISIS or the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Shamam is also referred to as ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and Lavant) by some. The grey shaded area in this map (Link) is the area controlled by ISIS today. How ISIS came in power over such a large region is one question and why it did so is another. I want to try to answer the why part in this blog post because I feel it is not being paid sufficient attention to in the media.

The roots of the ISIS movement lie in the toppling of the Saddam Hussein government in Iraq in 1990s. Saddam had become an autocratic leader and had defied the Western powers after he went to war with Kuwait over its oil. The George Bush Government in USA decided to capture Saddam Hussein based on intelligence that he had weapons of mass destruction. Saddam had used chemical warfare in the Kuwait War.

In the new government that was set up after the fall of Saddam Government, the majority power went to the Shias and the Sunnis and Saddam loyalists were not given any representation. The Saddam loyalists put a stiff fight to the Americans and established government and till the very end of the American occupation in Iraq, Fallujah, Tikrit and Mosul were on the verge of a civil war and the Americans gave up hope and left. 

The Saddam loyalists were heavily marginalized in Iraq after the funds from America and the NATO started pouring in to help in the post war reconstruction in Iraq. These Saddam loyalists became the separatists and are at the root of the ISIS movement. 

ISIS started expanding by gaining control of large territories in Iraq. The American troops had withdrawn now to focus their attention on Afghanistan and the Al Qaeda, getting Osama Bin Laden was now their sole focus. As the Americans and NATO focussed all of their might on decimating Al Qaeda and on the man hunt for Osama Bin Laden, ISIS faced little resistance in gaining territories in Iraq which did not have a full fledged army till now. 

As Arab Spring came and many of the autocracies in the Middle East were overthrown, ISIS found it easy to gain support from some of the separatists in Syria and Libya. Today, the ISIS controls large territories in the Middle East and the Americans are facing the same stiff opposition they faced in 1990s when they had to retreat from Fallujah without setting up a full civic order.

Here is a good article from The Atlantic on what the ISIS really wants: Link

Sunnis are still being marginalized in Iraq: Link to story

BITCOIN AND RELATED BUSINESSES

This presentation was prepared for the E-BUSINESS COURSE taught by Prof. Vijay Shrotriya. This presentation covers the regulated aspects of the bitcoin currency. There is a large shady marketplace for bitcoins that is unregulated and exists outside of USA and Australia. Regulating the dark market is difficult due to the decentralized nature of the bitcoin. However, proactive and corrective actions such as those taken in USA and Australia are necessary to check the growth of the dark markets which are unregulated. Turning a blind eye to these dark exchanges is not going to solve the problem of money laundering using the bitcoin which is often time used by drug dealers and terrorist networks.

A Hundred Small Steps (Contd.): Market reforms within existing legal and institutional framework

First a comment on my previous blog post in this series: Creating Liquid and Efficient Markets

"Consider the last 2 weeks turmoil in the financial markets. On Aug 24 the markets dropped by around 1000 points as fears from slow down in China and the US rate increases created a flight to safety in the markets. As the money moved out of Indian equities, the Rupee dropped to a 12 month low to 67 to a US Dollar. Subsequently, as the rate hike fears in USA were eased and the Chinese government reduced the rates, the markets recovered and so did the Rupee to 65 to a US Dollar. Now suppose we had a robust and liquid corporate bond market open to foreign investors. The money that moved out of equities at the start of the down swing, would have moved into corporate bonds and the Rupee would not have been hit so hard."

The suggestions given in the section on market refoms have been alluded to in earlier sections of the report and so have been superficially covered in the previous blog posts in this series. I find the treatment in the report to be very complete and am unable to contribute to the suggestions expressed in any way. So I  would suggest the reader to read this section on the report on pages 133 to 135 here: A Hundred Small Steps: Raghuram Rajan