Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Risk Analysis for different crops grown in India

Here an attempt is made to study correlations between yields of different crops in India with data collected over a period of 10 years up to 2004. A high variation in yield is taken as a high risk and consistent yield is taken as a low risk measure. There are strong correlations between the risk of growing wheat and rice. Wheat and sugar cane risks have very little correlation, indicating that sugar cane can be cultivated in most climates, even when wheat crop yields are not consistent. This makes sense because sugar cane is a hardy crop and grows in most weather conditions. An inverse correlation between the risks of wheat and mustard crops is seen but cannot be explained clearly. Going by the statistical nature of the analysis, it might be advisable to say that states having low risks on growing wheat should not try mustard and rape seed cultivation and vice versa.

Presentation has been prepared in SAP LUMIRA. Reference paper by: S.S. Raju and Ramesh Chand at National Center for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research titled "Agricultural Insurance in India: Problems and Prospects"


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